IRP 2025 marks return to bankable renewable ambition

The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2025, gazetted this week, marks a renewed commitment to South Africa’s clean energy transition – targeting an additional 10,313 MW of solar PV and 7,341 MW of wind by 2030. This will see total utility-scale renewable capacity grow from 9 GW today to roughly 26.7 GW by the end of the decade. 

The final IRP’s increased renewable allocation, compared to the earlier 2023 draft, demonstrates meaningful stakeholder engagement and alignment between South Africa’s decarbonisation goals and the institutional capital ready to support them. The IRP’s increased renewable ambition reflects responsiveness to feedback from the Presidential Climate Commission, industry, and investors. We now have an ambitious plan - the test is execution.

The success of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) provides a clear benchmark for bankable programme design. The REIPPPP’s R250 billion deployment across 123 projects with zero defaults shows what’s possible when frameworks meet all nine bankability requirements: clear regulation, standardised contracts, and appropriate risk allocation.

Futuregrowth expects the same structural discipline to underpin the Infrastructure Transmission Programme (ITP) and the upcoming 6 GW gas allocation, split between 3 GW via IPP procurement and 3 GW via Eskom direct participation. Capacity targets don’t become investment opportunities without robust programme structure. Synchronising transmission infrastructure with generation rollout will be the critical determinant of whether these targets translate into a fundable pipeline.

Futuregrowth itself has been a long-standing investor in South Africa’s renewable energy build-out. Through its Infrastructure and Development Bond Fund, the firm has financed over 31 renewable energy projects, which includes wind, solar PV and hydro developments, under the REIPPPP since 2011.

These investments have contributed to job creation, grid diversification, and measurable carbon-emission reductions across the country. We continue to leverage our developmental investment expertise to drive sustainable economic growth and infrastructure development across South Africa.